Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.096044 2.218074 2.346471 2.492153 2.653496 2.827451 3.030182
2025-06-15 1.931366 2.102060 2.290471 2.515758 2.780392 3.084722 3.466211
2025-06-22 1.792902 1.986277 2.206383 2.478890 2.812235 3.213751 3.745501
2025-06-29 1.684405 1.890966 2.131600 2.437654 2.824291 3.308020 3.979357
2025-07-06 1.589781 1.803229 2.056457 2.385541 2.812355 3.363616 4.160325
2025-07-13 1.548431 1.775572 2.050330 2.415823 2.903861 3.557354 4.547743
2025-07-20 1.516503 1.756438 2.051931 2.453737 3.005477 3.771023 4.988877
2025-07-27 1.489294 1.740861 2.055881 2.493190 3.110026 3.996415 5.478076
2025-08-03 1.443285 1.698591 2.022277 2.478680 3.135848 4.106518 5.795480
2025-08-10 1.400697 1.658531 1.989086 2.461834 3.155598 4.207158 6.109288
2025-08-17 1.358366 1.616863 1.951480 2.436010 3.159132 4.281022 6.384603
2025-08-24 1.318932 1.577373 1.914854 2.409104 3.158307 4.346388 6.652579
2025-08-31 1.290455 1.551948 1.896965 2.409143 3.200273 4.489089 7.102860
2025-09-07 1.271549 1.538563 1.894890 2.431871 3.279078 4.702630 7.744024
2025-09-14 1.234953 1.499810 1.855710 2.397020 3.262371 4.745145 8.022501
2025-09-21 1.199272 1.461152 1.815178 2.358009 3.235947 4.766885 8.257680
2025-09-28 1.162341 1.419705 1.769267 2.308673 3.189155 4.746238 8.388146
2025-10-05 1.151669 1.414121 1.774168 2.337346 3.275085 4.985215 9.221299
2025-10-12 1.143725 1.411926 1.783627 2.373227 3.375589 5.264692 10.253687
2025-10-19 1.136527 1.410428 1.793846 2.410543 3.481167 5.568532 11.476415
2025-10-26 1.115367 1.388477 1.773069 2.396821 3.493530 5.677021 12.138410
2025-11-02 1.094616 1.366546 1.751580 2.380886 3.500577 5.774578 12.803603
2025-11-09 1.072523 1.342134 1.725624 2.356452 3.490101 5.831717 13.351373